To Brexit or not to Brexit? That is the question

Straight off the bat I will say that I am what is euphemistically
known as a remoaner. I voted to stay in the European Union. There, I have said it and you all know where I am coming from.
So that said, how do I feel about the process thus far? Should there be a second referendum? Should we maintain a customs union union?
First off I am not happy with our current negotiation team. This is going to be VERY big for the UK. Theresa May threw any kind of mandate for negotiations under the EU bendybus with her election fiasco. It is most irritating to me that the biggest negotiation of this generation is being carried out by a political party that only just has a grip on parliament. It cannot be said it represents any kind of consensus in this country. We will have a Conservative inspired treaty that will be as close to aiding Conservative agenda as they can get away with but all else can go hang. They only represent 40% of the voters and usually their policies benefit a much smaller minority than that. Theresa May should of sought a cross party coalition of negotiators. Although they claim to be a party for choice, that is one commodity that falls to those that can afford to pay for it.
My stance during the referendum was we should either be in (preferred choice) or right out (too extreme though). Every other choice, however, whilst granting us some autonomy, would leave the nation continuing to pay into the EU and adopt all its laws and quirks whilst removing ANY ability to influence ANYTHING! The worst of both world's. I am not in favour of another referendum. The first one left us pretty divided I believe a second one will only drive the wedge deeper.
This country now needs the Brexiteers to really stand up and demonstrate how they expect us to be better off in the future. Just what is it that we can do better for ourselves.

To Have Our Cake and Eat It

For any Martians, that have just pitched up to complain about all this junk we keep burying in their home soil, here is a little round up of what has been going on in the jolly old UK since June 23rd earth year 2016. Well that is not strictly earth year but I am not going to explain to any visiting martians the relevance of B.C and A.D. in our current numbering regime and worshipping a bloke nailed to two sticks and ..... well quite frankly I find it hard enough to believe myself with out explaining it to total strangers

Where was I? Martians and Brexit! Oh look, I just can't start explaining trading blocks and political allegiances to some total strangers to the planet even if they are at least from within the same Solar system. 

OK Martians were a bad analogy. How about the next best thing  - Canadians! No that doesn't work either. Have you ever tried to explain anything to Canadians?

Oh I give up. This is just a quick run down of the facts as I see them (an interesting phrase as fact is not perceptive, a fact just is)

So anyway, there was a vote in the UK and the question was should we stay or leave the European Union. The Leave voters won by 52%to 48%. This created something of a political vacuum. The then Prime Minister, David Cameron fell on his sword for failing to win the referendum and left us trying to decide which eejits should be entrusted to lead us through this period where the will of the people is followed. 

Interestingly we ended up with a Prime Minister who, not 9 months earlier had been hung out to dry by her party after a speech she gave went spectacularly tits up in the press. 

And now many people are holding their breath/champing at the bit (depending on which side of the 52%-48% divide they fell) as we await the final moment when Article 50 is triggered and we are on a 2 year count down to the door marked "Exit" in Brussels. 

We are now in the no man's land of doubt and intrigue. It would seem that our government have no idea what sort of "exit" they seek to ensure for us. Nor is it clear just what sort of "Exit" was voted for. It was not a choice in the referendum. Even the winners are divided in how far we should "Exit". Should we go as far as Norway? Or as far as Switzerland? Some think that is not far enough and we should set sail for the balmy waters of the Indian Ocean where we could be best placed to utilise all those markets that are going begging, not being sought because we are too tied in with the EU. You know the ones, places like Pitcairn Island and that place where they set off all them H-bombs.

So that in  nutshell is it. Considering we are holding up quite well. Perhaps we are in the "phoney war" bit where no one really believes it is going to happen. 

We shall have to wait and see 

Farage for president

The more I seem to blog about Nigel Farage the more popular he gets. I am not of course suggesting for one moment my sparsely read blog is directly responsible for his rise to supers stardom. However I am perplexed by his rise to potential power. The latest row about him being made ambassador to Trumps US of A is a case in point. The guy is arrogant enough to insist he should be given the job of Ambassador to the USA on the basis that he seems to have some sort of friendship going on with the president elect. 

The plain matter of fact is that he is trying to eek out a new job for himself. Having ridden the gravy train of the being an MEP whilst campaigning to leave it he now finds that he may be without a lucrative pay packet for himself. So he is now casting around for another gravy train to ride. Havingthe ear of the President elect seems to be his next ploy. 

For my money he can get lost. The Government rightly hands these jobs to career diplomats who actually know what they are doing. I don't particularly want our ambassador to any country to be a "mate" of the government involved. I want that person the represent their country not their own zeitgeist. Farage may be called on reign back on Trumps dumb policy, would a "mate" feel like standimg up against Trump?

Then there is this idea that Farage is somehow anti establishment. You could not get a more "Establishment" figure. Privately educated, privately wealthy trader in metals. The idea he represents anything I am is ludicrous. He has far more in common with his office buddies in the conservative party. Wickipedia calims he is the member of a private members club in the UK. If this is true this just confirms his establishment credentials. These clubs used to be male only clubs where you could only get in with the right school tie they are the ultimate in patriarchal, right wing, elitist society.

Nigel Farage could not get elected to Parliament. He ought to take the hint - he is not wanted.

The World Turns In On Itself

It has taken some time to feed through to Geo Politics but here we are. So after 8 years since the financial crash of 2008, we are finally seeing the political map start to shift. 

Now I AM an anxious person but I see parallels with the financial crash of the 1920's. I think that the social costs were less this time round, maybe. We are starting to reap the wind of austerity. 8 years after and most of us have regrouped from our losses but the government finances are, unfortunately, still in the mire. Those of us that require Government funded aid and projects, anything from schools to health care and including welfare are still feeling the squeeze because the UK government still cannot balance the books. 

Does it need to balance it's income is a question that should be left to another time.

The current government trend is to try to narrow the deficit between what it earns and what it spends. 

What this means for the UK as a whole is that something has to give. We are seeing issues with our health care in that it would seem some hospitals in the country are about to lose services and be amalgamated with other hospitals. All in the name of saving money. I make no comment at this time as to whether this is good or bad I am just using it to show that central government is tightening it's belt.

OK so far so good. But what concerns me about the state of the wider world is that it appears to be contracting. I believe that the overall trend in politics is to be protectionist. To hold on to what we each have. It is partly an avaricious behaviour in my view. If allowed to continue unchecked will result in societies that will lose the ability to care for one and another. I'm all right jack. 

If we lose the ability to empathise with outside influences we will be in danger of becoming more entrenched in our view points and conflict becomes more likely.

Game theory suggests we all benefit the more we cooperate and share but we are heading down  the avenue of holding om to what we have and the  rest can go hang.

Nigel Farage - Fool or Foolhardy?

I like to put him on the left!

My favourite pseudo politician Nigel Farage has been at it again. On a BBC political discussion he has once again tried to make a mountain out of a mole hill. 

This is all about how the government triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. In a recent high court ruling the Government has been prevented from triggering Article 50 without first gaining Parliaments permission. As I stated in a previous blog I find Nigel Farage's stance to be puzzling. To campaign for sovereignty and then try to by pass it seems strange and contradictory

Secondly it it is not entirely clear what sort of Brexit the referendum voted for. The question was just leave or remain. It is only Nigel Farage and UKIP that are demanding that the vote was for a so called hard Brexit. The question was not designed to lead to a leave result. All that the voters have actually rejected was really David Cameron's unreformed reforms (Effectively he gained nothing from his campaign to seek reforms from Brussels). 

So Parliament does need to be consulted so that a consensus of what it is we want from Brexit can be solidified. It may well be that what we get is a hard Brexit as we may not be able to negotiate a single thing we want. The EU are keeping their powder dry right now as to how difficult they will make leaving. 

However Nigel Farage goes on in this TV show to say that we "will see political anger the like of which we have never seen in this country" and that there will be trouble on the streets

Oh! Mr Farage what a short memory you have indeed. I can't believe, in a week when we discussed the "Battle of Orgreave" that he has the temerity to suggest that this will in any way match up to the industrial and political disputes of the 70's and 80's let alone the riots in various cities around the UK in the early 80's never mind 2010. A year in which, it is worth noting,  a relative of mine stood atop a hill in Surrey some 30 miles from London and witnessed smoke rising from the capital, a site which she said she hadn't seen since 1940. 

Shame on you Mr Farage

To suggest anyone cares that much about this issue really is farcical. Unfortunately TV shows like this love to have characters like our Nigel because it gets them noticed. He is very articulate but he just spouts  lot of nonsense. But then that is UKIP all over. 

The political danger of subverting this exit procedure by parliament (and the Lords) will be to alienate the electorate from it's government. Although it should be remembered a substantial part of this country's population (16 million) did not vote to leave and their wishes need recognition. The Nigel Farages of this world would do well to remember they have a large tranch of dissenters to carry with them. To force their will on these people will surely divide this country more and thus some sort of consensus on what sort of Brexit we can all live with must be gained. 

I have resigned myself to laving the EU. But I will not go quietly into the night!

To Brexit or not to Brexit? That is the question

OK So I am a Remoaner. This term is applied by Brexiteers ( a deliberately cheeky name for proponents the UK's exit from the EU - sounds like buccaneer) to people who were in favour of staying in the EU. This said I am pleased that the government lost the high court case today over triggering article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. This is not because I don't want it to be triggered ( I don't) but because I don't believe the country has really set out what it wants. There are many ways or versions of Brexit that are possible. Including those known as the Norway Model all the way to full and complete exit. The referendum only gave the instruction to leave. It did not specify under what terms

I find it ironic that the Brexiteers (and the UK media, more specifically the Daily Express and the Daily Mail), who argued that we should leave as EU, as EU law trumped Westminster Law every time, wish to circumvent the very institution they sought to "protect".

The government wished to use Royal prerogative powers to call in article 50 and start the ball rolling on what ever form of Brexit we can muster for ourselves. It remains to be seen whether the EU will play hardball with us or not. I am not going to go in on the Project Fear stuff but the Brexiteers are very confident with our futures to which the financial markets do not necessarily share as see in the drop in the value of the pound.

Perversely the drop in the currency is possibly beneficial in the long run because we will have to be a net exporter to survive in the Post Brexit world. It will make our goods and services more attractive. The problem is that we are a long way from that target and import, well, just about everything we consume. 

An early election? A possibility, it would require and act of parliament or as a pundit noted, the bizarre notion of Theresa May having to force a vote of no confidence on her own government. 

Personally I think we either need a general election to battle out just what kind of brexit was voted for on June 23rd or another referendum about the options. 

Nigel Farage and an unfortunate microphone!

At the moment the referendum just told the politicians "we" wanted to go. But on what terms? secondly there were a substantial number of citizens that voted to remain in the EU and the total lack of information about what is being planned has not helped to unite a nation. I still find it irksome that Brexiteers should assume that we should all jump onto the same bandwagon. It is not like we were asked "Tea or coffee?" Us Remoaners may well have had our hopes and dreams ripped from our grasp and no one is able to tell us in what way everything is now better and it was a good decision. It behoves the likes of UKIP to persuade us that this was a "Good Idea" because.....! To just say stop moaning and get on with it is just plain arrogant and divisive.

But like I have said UKIP were lost in some reverie of a lost empire and a world of super rich third world nations just queueing up, waiting to buy all our stuff. 

I will leave you with this little nugget

Post Brexit Challenge!

This is a very difficult piece for me to write to be honest. The brutal truth is that I voted for "Remain" so just about every piece of news about leaving the EU feels like someone giving me a rub down with coarse sand paper whilst telling me it is going to do me good

I don't think that certain politicians calling anti brexit voters "remoaners" really helps the situation. IT behoves all of us that didn't call for Breit to make sure that the Brexiteers are called to account. That they justify their actions and if necessary be ridiculed for the eejits they really are.

I am sure the  sun will still rise on the what is left of the UK once we have left the EU so it will not be the end of the world. Quite. It will be difficult to measure how well or how badly we are doing in a post Brexit world.

The Brexiteers still have much to prove. How hard will the EU negotiate? How hard will the exit be? Has anyone realised how much we depend on foreign workers for many of the things we take for granted especially in the health care sector?

No, I mustn't go down this route. I can feel my blood pressure rising. It still rankles about how cavalier the Brexiteers have been with our futures.

Mark my words there are serious problems ahead with Scotland and Northern Ireland. This has the ability to reverse 20 years of peace in NI. Let alone the fact that The UK may not be so much more than England and Wales.

It makes sense,for the Brexiteers, that Article 50 is finished before 2020. If we are not out of the EU by the next election then it will become a de facto rerun of the referendum.

There will be a lot of new voters in 2020. These will be the ones that were denied a vote this time around and who, according to many sources, were in favour of staying in the EU.

It is a cheap shot to call us "remoaners" but the so far the phrase "I told you it would be thus" springs to mind. The markets so far do not have much faith in the pound. It looks like we are in for a bit of inflation which was predicted by us remainers.

Ah well. Don't say you weren't warned.